359 replies to this topic

[Drift Spunk]

Some extracts from Bloomberg

April 13 (Bloomberg) -- Thailand’s baht fell the most in 10 months and ratings companies said the nation’s debt rating may be cut after anti-government protesters fought police and Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva declared a state of emergency.

The currency extended its loss this year to 2.8 percent, Continued unrest may worsen an economy facing its first annual contraction in 11 years.

“If conditions continue to develop, then chances are we would take the next step” and lower Thailand’s Baa1 debt rating, S&P revised the outlook on Thailand’s BBB+ credit rating to negative from stable in December.

Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy may shrink 2 percent this year, Tan said today. Moody’s expects a contraction of 3 percent or more, Byrne said. That would Thailand’s first annual shrinkage in gross domestic product since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis.

“The biggest risk is widespread violence,” S&P’s Tan said. “Investors both foreign and local are more wary of planting investment in the country.”

The baht fell 0.8 percent to 35.68 in offshore trading as of 4:45 p.m. local time, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the biggest drop since June last year. Financial markets in Thailand are closed until April 16 for the Thai New Year holiday, known as Songkran.

“Even if Abhisit resigns, I don’t think it will change the political climate in the longer term. We have been bearish on the country in the long-term. The baht will be an underperformer in coming months.”

Thai Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said April 3 the economy shrank “about 5 percent” in the first quarter, having last month warned gross domestic product may slide more than 3 percent unless government spending is increased. A report last week showed consumer confidence slumped to the lowest level in more than seven years in March.

“It is not good at all for the baht,” said Suresh Kumar Ramanathan, a rates and currency strategist at CIMB Investment Bank Bhd. in Kuala Lumpur. “They keep on having these problems every three to six months and there is no end to it. This puts a big question mark on everything that is happening in the country. The unrest is spreading.”

Investors should “take profit” on Thailand’s stocks as anti-government protesters intensify their rallies, Credit Suisse Group advised.

Gains in global markets in the past month offer investors a chance to sell their Thai holdings, including property stocks, said Credit Suisse analyst Dan Fineman, reiterating his “underweight” recommendation on the market. An election will be the best outcome for investors as this will give the government greater legitimacy, he added.

“A return to the dark days of the second half of 2008 is not inevitable but the risk of prolonged political tensions is high,” Fineman said. “We now suggest taking profit in key stocks and sectors we had previously liked.”

[kliome]

I don't want to tempt fate, but it does look like the £/Bht exchange is improving.

It seems to have reaches 52.75 as I speak, which is as good as I've seen since the turn of the year.

Fingers crossed!

[Rossco]

Rates are moving in the UKP's favor BUT only because the Baht is weakening - the UKP is still relatively weak and the USD is forecast to weaken by end of April.

The recent riots will have adversely impacted tourism - again! It is a shame that Thailand cannot recognize its dire need to encourage tourism and not publicize its political insecurity.

Thailand is still a great vacation resort but in the last 3 years they have really set themselves back as a popular destination

So UKP to Baht is now over 50 at 52.7.


http://www.x-rates.c...BP/graph120.png

[filbert]

The exchange rates quoted on sites like www.xe.com don't actually reflect the real exchange rate that you'd get from somewhere like a UK bank or Post Office, today I got Bhat for the trip I'll soon be making and the exchange rate turned out to be very different.

xe.com rate:

£1.00 = 51.7070

Post Office rate:

£1.00 = 47.6917

The trend does seems to be moving in the right direction (for us in the UK anyway) but it's not there yet.

Now a question, is it worth bringing money over or should I hang fire and just hit a cashpoint when I get there?

[kliome]

Filbert, those xe rates are more inline with what you would get exchanging your money in Thailand, you will always get around 3 or 4 Bht lower when exchanging in the UK.

[filbert]

Cheers kliome, now I have enough Baht for the first day or so I'll just hit cashpoints when I get there rather then get any more here before I fly out.

[duke007]

I tend to look at this site

http://www.bankthail...changeRates.htm

[Anthony_Mustang]

Woohoo!

The aussie $ is back over 25

[donnykey]

I tend to look at this site

http://www.bankthail...changeRates.htm

Yes use this link and click on exchange rates for Bangkok bank and Siam Commercial Bank ...the average of these two rates is a very accurate guide as to what you can get when changing cash at Money exchanges in Pattaya.....Cheers Donnykey