359 replies to this topic

[Brit]

Reuters website is reporting today and predicted considerable weakening of the USD in the next 5 days.

After a stock rallying they predict there will be an outflow of USD FX thus weaking its standing. FX investment focused on emerging economies such as India where elections are nearing conclusion.

Should be an interesting month ahead on the money markets - perhaps we shall see the 'right-sizing' of the dollar on the markets and finally returning the money markets to normality.

Certainly the rates are going in the correct direction at the moment.

[kliome]

It's 54.4 bht to £1 this evening.

Now that's more like it, keep going!

[Brit]

if someone could explain to me please, as i do not understand what makes exchange rates fluctuate.
i saw by looking at the xe.com web site, the pound as you are aware is beginning to pick up against the thai baht, but i also noticed that it is beginning to get a wee bit stronger against the us dollar, and the euro.
is this the reason due to the better rate against the baht, and if so, how the bloody hell does it all work :?:

My limited understanding is as follows:
* Prosperity of your economy (against GDP)
* Your Trade figures and existing Trade agreements
* Your countries Banking policies and reserves
* The markets perceived prosperity
* Stock movements and F-EX purchases/reserves/stock piling
* Perceived stability of your government and their power

The movement of the exchange markets are controlled by a few high powered stock investors who dictate the markets through their advice and purchases - choosing to buy and sell cross markets and dictating the currencies of their choice in those mammoth transactions.

[dixon cox]

Since the lows of mid-March'09 the Baht seems to be following a slow upward trend against the GBP

But it took a sudden positive leap in the last few days of around 2 baht! :o

Attached Files

•  thb-gbp.png   10.46KB   299 downloads

[dixon cox]

dc, do you think at this could be the start of it pushing back up to the 60's
you were spot on mate, as cannot remember if it was a pm or a post, however what ever it was, i asked you what you thought the rate would be when i was going on my trip, and you said probably 53/55, top marks once again dc.
also are there any pending factors which could see it fall to the 40's when i am in los, or will it be steady eddie ?

Exchange rate predictions can be a risky thing and are based on complex unknowns, for me it's purely for 'fun'. But it will not drop to the 40s dude (famous last words).

I reckon the THB-GBP will continue the s-l-o-w upward trend over the rest of the year to maybe 57-59 and then drop by a few baht between Dec'09 and Jan'10 during high-season.

This time next year I think it will touch 61-63, unless the BHT is devalued in which case this will all be accellerated.

The recent sudden increase might be followed by a dip, but it will pick up again. You can see this trend over the last 90 days here:

Attached Files

•  thb-gbp.png   12.12KB   294 downloads

[dixon cox]

just looked at xe.com. the pound is up to 1.60 against the us and up to 54.8 against the baht, seems as if the recovery is slowly getting there. will be quite happy if i get 55 to the pound in thailand if you consider how low it went

What's the £ vs. BHT rate on the streets of Pattaya right now rev?

It's at it's highest for 6 months by quite some margin, you timed your trip well

Attached Files

•  Chart.aspx.png   12.87KB   229 downloads

[triat45]

Can't believe I'm timing my trip this well.. AUD is climbing steadily again - getting 27.5Bht to the Aussie now