53 replies to this topic

[mardhi]

Nana Plaza is an interesting one. Having been brought up in an area where I had many Indian friends from childhood - I have serious reservations that the current owners would sell it. One thing I learnt, was that the mindset is never to sell valuable real estate. To understand this better you need to look at the history of Bangkok. Sukhumvit was never considered as the 'hub' infact when the current British Embassy in Bangkok was opened, it was considered like a suburb. In very simple terms, the Thai's 'pushed out' a lot of Indian Thai's out to the suburbs many moons ago and thus they acquired over time, huge chunks of real estate in the suburban area known as the Nana Ghetto we all know, love and at times despair of.

So fast forward to today and most of lower Sukhumvit is ethnic Indian Thai owned. They own many of the famous hotels, albeit they are managed by foreign companies (Sheraton, Novotel etc).

I have rarely met a businessman that did not understand that you need a honey pot to make a business opportunity work and thus Nana is the honey pot. That feeds the hotels, restaurants, tailor shops all Indian owned as well. Eliminate it and the consequences are huge. Entertainment licences cannot be transferred and are no longer issued in Bangkok outside of 3 zones (of which Nana is not one, however Patpong is and the other 2 are focused on Thai customers). Equally, contrary to common thought - Nana Plaza is NOT fronting Sukhumvit Road - so there are restrictions now on height and density for hi-rise buildings as its access is a small side road (soi 4).

How this will play out is anyone's guess but my strong gut feeling is that it is a negotiating tack which will lead to HUGE rent increases for the current tenants. IMHO, its really that simple. Many people are well aware that the BKK market is awash with 6* condos that cannot sell, and there is a surplus of office space as well. Personally I think the place will continue albeit it will be 'upgraded' and prices will rise as a result. One day re-development may happen but I suspect another round of 3X3year leases will be offered and honoured.

[Legend]

im not quite inderstainding the value of the land nana sits on.put a hotel there and it would be just another street.?
surely the plaza is the main puller for tourists to stay in that area.?
it is for me.

i also think, even if you moved all the shit bars and ladyboys up to say, soi bukheow.
word would get round that you have to go and look at it, in the same way the tourists gather at the front of crocodile in phucket.
then soi bukheow would be the next walking street.?
and walking street could continue on its path to keeping the arabs happy with more hookah bars.

[mardhi]

im not quite inderstainding the value of the land nana sits on.put a hotel there and it would be just another street.?
surely the plaza is the main puller for tourists to stay in that area.?
it is for me.

I would hazzard a guess (and it is a guess) that the rent income from bars in Nana Plaza amounts to some 7,000,000b month. so say, 84,000,000b year. That is a lot of rent income considering the owning family probably brought it for a song some 40/50 years ago.

That keeps them in a lot of shiny new S class 'Benz's and is a constant income stream - somebody does not pay they get kicked out and the lease re-sold. Add in key money renewals and its a tidy sum for anyone. Why sell it for 700,000,000m baht - they are probably earning a 12% Re-run on current value as it is and its way less hassle than having to build and run a hotel, condo or office block.

[soulboy]

Surely no one is surprised at the idea of the Thai government wanting to shift unsightly intoxicated farangs out of the sight of the wealthy Chinese & other "preferred" tourists.

This has been coming a while now & the GFC has played neatly into the hands of those pushing for change. And they do want change!

Old farangs with beer bellies wearing 'wifebeaters' revealing heavily tattooed arms while walking through Pattaya with a young Thai farmgirl tagging along for her money is a sight that sends shivers through most Thais.

Would they prefer a bargirl going home with 5 Indian guys ?

I honestly think they don't care , I tend to agree with Mardhi's analysis they will take tourists where they can find them .

Right now India , Russia and the Middle East are where the tourists are coming from because the rest of Europe and the US is squeezed .

If these people spend money I've yet to see it , certainly not in the places we frequent .

Why anyone would want to bring a family to Pattaya amazes me no matter what they try .

[pacman]

It's more than just not caring, IMO they don't understand. I believe that if the Tourism Board or whatever the Thai equivalent calls themself, see that they have plugged the falling tourist numbers from the west with more from the east, they will be satisfied they have done a good job.

In my experience, Thais don't over think these things, they just see what they want to see. I very much doubt it occurs to them that a western tourist who spends 10,000 baht a day is a far more valuable visitor than a busload of Indians who budget on 500 baht a day each.

I also haven't seen any sign of our Indian friends spending money, they buy one beer from the 7-11 & act like they are having fun.. But statistically, the government can ward off criticism by pointing to the numbers of beds being occupied every night across the country.

The economic malaise that is affecting Europe & the US looks set to continue for years to come. Pattaya & other party centres in LOS are built around a nightlife scene that will inevitably collapse if these newcomers refuse to participate.

[jimbo34]

The economic malaise that is affecting Europe & the US looks set to continue for years to come. Pattaya & other party centres in LOS are built around a nightlife scene that will inevitably collapse if these newcomers refuse to participate.

A very good post paccers, and its the last bit that worries me.

The "newcomers" as you call them are not worth diddly to our scene, but they have to keep the numbers up, and what else can they do? Europe and the U.S. are going to be in deep shit for a long time to come.

[boss45]

http://www.worldcrunch.com/bangkok-sinking-thai-capital-risks-washing-sea/3476

[dixon cox]

“floods have always been a natural phenomenon considering that Bangkok is built on muddy soils, only 1.5 meters above sea level.”

It's a distinct possibility, with potential rising sea levels due to global warming.


But which comes first?

You might be more concerned about this (Stickman Weekly 17/7/2011):

All eyes are on Nana Plaza as what was for more than a decade Bangkok's hottest farang gogo bar area may not be of this world much longer. An offer has been made to the owners of the land on which Nana Plaza sits by another Indian Thai group, for a whopping 756 million baht.

I have said it before, and I will say it again - the land on which Nana Plaza sits is much too valuable for a bunch of gogo bars, some of which generate bugger all revenue. My prediction? In 18 months Nana Plaza will be history and the soi 4 we have come to know will change forever.

Source: http://www.stickmanb...ai-massage2.htm
(Towards the bottom)

What Stickman is talking about is not just hearsay, it has been looming closer and closer and known about for some years. It seems Nana Plaza's days are finally numbered.

[Rossco]

The writing has been on the wall for Nana for some time.

Over 4 years ago there was a seminar in Pattaya about the future of Pattaya and tourism. The authorities want the area defined between Beach Road and 2nd Road and Pattaya Tai (South) and Pattaya Nua (North) to become a family friendly zone. They want the independent (note independent not Simon Beer bar complexes etc) bars out.

They will retain Walking St as an adult attraction. Open beer bars seem to be OK too as there are no closed doors/curtains concealing 'untoward' activity!

Certainly this year many bars have/are struggling and many will close. Soi 6 is very quiet as are many other haunts.

The bars are not only suffering from a lack of tourism but a change in the tourist profile - Out with the Westerners and In with the Russians/Indians/Arabic tourists. These tourists do not visit bars in the same way as Westerners do - not many Pubs in the Middle East/India.

This change in tourism is a deliberate move by Thai Tourism Authority and their latest focal group are Iran and Israel.

Monger while you can.

[petesie]

As a lot of the revenue we pour into the bars gets recirculated back to Issan then I think the supply and demand will still exist for our extra curricular activities.

I can however see the City Elders eventually pushing it all back towards the Third Road.

[xyzzy]

This change in tourism is a deliberate move by Thai Tourism Authority and their latest focal group are Iran and Israel.

That combination should make for interesting times in Pattaya.

[Rossco]

The money to Issan is grey money - not in the Tourist financial reward numbers.

As there is no social security/dole/unemployment benefit in Thailand laying off 60,000 hookers in Hooker Hollow will not cost the state one baht.

The indirect impact will not be felt for some time in Issan so the powers that be do not give a damn.

Tourism represents only 7% of Thai GDP - that is the official input. The grey economy probably is somewhere like another 3% but immesurable.

Most 'independent' bars pay little or no tax so replacing them with 'sublet' open beer bars (like Simon/Drinking St) brings in tax - Simon etc pay tax on the rental income and not the individual turnover. So a quick balancing act says that the powers that be can bust the bars and actually reap a tax reward.

My forecast is that 35% of bars will close/abandon within 12 months.

In some ways it may be to our advantage - less bars but more busy and hopefully improved standards.