53 replies to this topic

[sev7en]

My forecast is that 35% of bars will close/abandon within 12 months.

You been talking to paccers

[Rossco]

No - I have been watching the wrecker crews tearing down an old beer bar complex on 2nd Road up past Soi 6.

A number of smaller bars have just not had enough trade to sustain them.

Bars closing is not 'doom & gloom' as many are just run down old bars that are past their sell by date. No real loss and hopefully better venues will emerge.

The newer Simon Beer bar complexes (like Drinking St) only have one shared music system which is a big improvement over a number of bars all playing their own 'music' and trying to outdo each other on the decibel scale.

The main problem they have is what do they provide these family group tourists with? Pattaya was born on our favoured industry and the bars - take those away and you just have a void until they improve the tourist infrastructure.

I have heard that one company is opening a dolphinarium in Naklua.

[pacman]

Surely no one is surprised at the idea of the Thai government wanting to shift unsightly intoxicated farangs out of the sight of the wealthy Chinese & other "preferred" tourists.

This has been coming a while now & the GFC has played neatly into the hands of those pushing for change. And they do want change!

Old farangs with beer bellies wearing 'wifebeaters' revealing heavily tattooed arms while walking through Pattaya with a young Thai farmgirl tagging along for her money is a sight that sends shivers through most Thais.

This sight that has been constantly repeated on TV over many years is one that enrages those who care about their countries good image. Among Hi-So Thais & the monks, this is a subject of some urgency. Thaksin will have little opposition to any plan to change things.

I am amazed that they think they can keep WS as a tourist attraction, they must remember when the Singapore government bulldozed Bugis Street one night. All the tourists complained they had nowhere to go so they turned around & rebuilt it.

I am willing to wager that the new "government run" Walking Street will not be featuring any LB bars. I am sure there will be decency standards imposed on them to keep with the "family image". How silly, it will just make the new scene that much more desirable.

As for it going to 3rd Road, that has been the thinking for a while but if it means the undesirable farangs will still be walking through Pattaya, I doubt that it will be allowed to get off the ground. My guess if it will relocate far away from Pattaya.

And I note the grey economy attached to the tourism business is estimated at 3% of GDP. I assume that is a government estimate, I have seen other figures that put it higher than the official figure of 7% of GDP. When taking into account the foreign currency that arrives in LOS as a direct result of farang/bargirl interaction, the figure is estimated in the millions a week. That is an unsustainable loss for somewhere like Issan. And they vote Red all day long. Maybe they will open an International airport up there along with 1000 bars & clubs?

Where's my proof for all this? Sorry, no hab. It is speculation based on personal observations plus 100's of conversations with people who live there, both farang & locals. You can deny me all you like, call me names if it helps, but just don't be surprised when one day, Sois 6, 7 & 8 disappear. They will be first, others will follow.

[Rossco]

I have to agree about Soi 6, 7, 8. The bars are getting so squeezed by the authorities that running a bar is a minefield. The latest is that all bars must 'register' all their staff - copy of ID, photo and completed form - one copy in the venue and another with the police.

If the bar is visited and a person is 'working' there and the venue has no document then the bar is fined. Some poor guy in Soi Bukhouw used to get some GGs, from a neighbouring bar that closed early, freelancing at his joint. He had a visit and did not have the registration forms - there went the months profit.

Soi 6 used be like playing 'British Bulldog' to walk down - now you can play 'Spot the Farang'. Either Soi 7 or 8 - they expanded the hotel knocking down many bars to do so. At the Beach Road end of these 2 sois are a group of new Beer bars in a complex (same style Simon Beer bars) which meant closing down a number of independent bars.

It is changing - I do not think the plan is to eliminate all bars and venues but to get rid of the independent places and open more open/upmarket bar complexes.

The old Farang described by Pacman will always seek a cheap beer and cheap Bar Fine and he will just go hunting East of Soi Bukhouw. There are now in Pattaya an emerging new style venue - gentlemen's clubs. They are not in the most obvious places. Rioja is one and Kilamaree (something like that).

Pattaya is, and has been, involved in the oldest game in town since it began. It is unlikely that this will disappear all together - it will just become more discrete. Ref unemployment - many workers have already returned to Issan for low season - it is cheaper to live in the village than exist in Pattaya. Pattaya can provide rich pickings but in the absence of the sex tourist they will just settle back down in Issan as they did before.

The new style business may become internet based - looking back over the last 5 years the ladies have become more computer literate and no longer require someone to ghost write letters. So maybe it will become virtual relationships - with sponsorship of course.

I met a group of South Africans two weeks ago - first vist to Pattaya. They were having a great time. For many of us we see Pattaya today compared to 5 or more years ago when it was at its height BUT we are comparing two different views. Newcomers only see Pattaya as it is today and there is still enough bars/venues to satiate the biggest of appetites.

[dixon cox]

... but just don't be surprised when one day, Sois 6, 7 & 8 disappear. They will be first, others will follow.

.. and Hi-Boss has just been refurbished - Bummer :|

Maybe beer bar and go-go bar owners will start appreciating Western customers again as more undesirable nations populate Pattaya. Although it'll probaby just be our fault.

The Pattaya clean-up is being talked about much the way Nana Plaza's was for years. But Nana Plaza now has a date hanging over it. It could be interesting.

[mardhi]

There seems to be a view that 'Farang' money is not needed as part of some grand plan however I have a very different take on it. The simple fact of the matter is that Thailand Inc had no option but to look to other markets to fill hotels. By any measure, they have succeeded as Western economies are going through rough times.

I sincerely doubt anyone is particularly happy at the 'quality' of these tourists - however as we know in Thailand, volume = good. Therefore having 500 low spending tourists on walking Street must be better than 50 high spending tourists as they may spend money.

It is simple (flawed) Thai logic that dictates volume = good. Still, 7-11 seem to be doing well out of it, they even ask you now on Walking street if you want your bottle of beer opened at the counter !!!! and they pay shed loads of tax. [/i]

[mardhi]

Nana Plaza is an interesting one. Having been brought up in an area where I had many Indian friends from childhood - I have serious reservations that the current owners would sell it. One thing I learnt, was that the mindset is never to sell valuable real estate. To understand this better you need to look at the history of Bangkok. Sukhumvit was never considered as the 'hub' infact when the current British Embassy in Bangkok was opened, it was considered like a suburb. In very simple terms, the Thai's 'pushed out' a lot of Indian Thai's out to the suburbs many moons ago and thus they acquired over time, huge chunks of real estate in the suburban area known as the Nana Ghetto we all know, love and at times despair of.

So fast forward to today and most of lower Sukhumvit is ethnic Indian Thai owned. They own many of the famous hotels, albeit they are managed by foreign companies (Sheraton, Novotel etc).

I have rarely met a businessman that did not understand that you need a honey pot to make a business opportunity work and thus Nana is the honey pot. That feeds the hotels, restaurants, tailor shops all Indian owned as well. Eliminate it and the consequences are huge. Entertainment licences cannot be transferred and are no longer issued in Bangkok outside of 3 zones (of which Nana is not one, however Patpong is and the other 2 are focused on Thai customers). Equally, contrary to common thought - Nana Plaza is NOT fronting Sukhumvit Road - so there are restrictions now on height and density for hi-rise buildings as its access is a small side road (soi 4).

How this will play out is anyone's guess but my strong gut feeling is that it is a negotiating tack which will lead to HUGE rent increases for the current tenants. IMHO, its really that simple. Many people are well aware that the BKK market is awash with 6* condos that cannot sell, and there is a surplus of office space as well. Personally I think the place will continue albeit it will be 'upgraded' and prices will rise as a result. One day re-development may happen but I suspect another round of 3X3year leases will be offered and honoured.

[Legend]

im not quite inderstainding the value of the land nana sits on.put a hotel there and it would be just another street.?
surely the plaza is the main puller for tourists to stay in that area.?
it is for me.

i also think, even if you moved all the shit bars and ladyboys up to say, soi bukheow.
word would get round that you have to go and look at it, in the same way the tourists gather at the front of crocodile in phucket.
then soi bukheow would be the next walking street.?
and walking street could continue on its path to keeping the arabs happy with more hookah bars.

[mardhi]

im not quite inderstainding the value of the land nana sits on.put a hotel there and it would be just another street.?
surely the plaza is the main puller for tourists to stay in that area.?
it is for me.

I would hazzard a guess (and it is a guess) that the rent income from bars in Nana Plaza amounts to some 7,000,000b month. so say, 84,000,000b year. That is a lot of rent income considering the owning family probably brought it for a song some 40/50 years ago.

That keeps them in a lot of shiny new S class 'Benz's and is a constant income stream - somebody does not pay they get kicked out and the lease re-sold. Add in key money renewals and its a tidy sum for anyone. Why sell it for 700,000,000m baht - they are probably earning a 12% Re-run on current value as it is and its way less hassle than having to build and run a hotel, condo or office block.

[soulboy]

Surely no one is surprised at the idea of the Thai government wanting to shift unsightly intoxicated farangs out of the sight of the wealthy Chinese & other "preferred" tourists.

This has been coming a while now & the GFC has played neatly into the hands of those pushing for change. And they do want change!

Old farangs with beer bellies wearing 'wifebeaters' revealing heavily tattooed arms while walking through Pattaya with a young Thai farmgirl tagging along for her money is a sight that sends shivers through most Thais.

Would they prefer a bargirl going home with 5 Indian guys ?

I honestly think they don't care , I tend to agree with Mardhi's analysis they will take tourists where they can find them .

Right now India , Russia and the Middle East are where the tourists are coming from because the rest of Europe and the US is squeezed .

If these people spend money I've yet to see it , certainly not in the places we frequent .

Why anyone would want to bring a family to Pattaya amazes me no matter what they try .

[pacman]

It's more than just not caring, IMO they don't understand. I believe that if the Tourism Board or whatever the Thai equivalent calls themself, see that they have plugged the falling tourist numbers from the west with more from the east, they will be satisfied they have done a good job.

In my experience, Thais don't over think these things, they just see what they want to see. I very much doubt it occurs to them that a western tourist who spends 10,000 baht a day is a far more valuable visitor than a busload of Indians who budget on 500 baht a day each.

I also haven't seen any sign of our Indian friends spending money, they buy one beer from the 7-11 & act like they are having fun.. But statistically, the government can ward off criticism by pointing to the numbers of beds being occupied every night across the country.

The economic malaise that is affecting Europe & the US looks set to continue for years to come. Pattaya & other party centres in LOS are built around a nightlife scene that will inevitably collapse if these newcomers refuse to participate.

[jimbo34]

The economic malaise that is affecting Europe & the US looks set to continue for years to come. Pattaya & other party centres in LOS are built around a nightlife scene that will inevitably collapse if these newcomers refuse to participate.

A very good post paccers, and its the last bit that worries me.

The "newcomers" as you call them are not worth diddly to our scene, but they have to keep the numbers up, and what else can they do? Europe and the U.S. are going to be in deep shit for a long time to come.