359 replies to this topic

[koykaeng]

I'm no finance expert however I wouldn't be surprised to see the Baht de-valued by somewhere
between 5 - 10% within the next few months.

Cheers
Koykaeng

[Drift Spunk]

The median if they decide to devalue the baht is 17%. A strong usd could see 20% and a weak usd could see 14%

[koykaeng]

The median if they decide to devalue the baht is 17%. A strong usd could see 20% and a weak usd could see 14%

Like I said, I'm no financial expert, however if the global crisis continues at the present, greed-fuelled rate, by the end of this year only two banks will be left operational ........ the Blood Bank and the Sperm Bank!

And don't you just know that when these two banks merge it would still be full of bloody wankers.

Cheers
Koykaeng

[Rossco]

I am also no financial expert but here is my contribution.

UKP to Thai Baht, over the last 20 years, - worst 36 and best 93.

USD appears strong as they are buying back foreign debt.

While the USD is strong it deflects foreign imports and encourages domestic purchase - not that the US would positively engineer that situation!!!! Buy a Detroit car vs a Japanese/European car.

Note that FIAT, Renault, Citroen, Peugeot no longer sell to the US - they got fed up with the 'red tape' and bias.

Somehow the 'grey' global currencies are tied to the USD. Back in teh 50's the US secured the majority of the world's gold then ditched the gold standard.

I hear many people saying that it is time to move from a USD based world economy to a Euro based economy. Take Oil prices - why did they shift by so much in the last 18 months - a huge amount of the shift was due to the price of world oil determined in USD.

The US has manipulated the Dollar many times to encourage Domestic spend and discourage Imports - that is why so many companies manufacture under license - BMW, Toyota, Honda etc.

The interesting thing is that if these foreign companies pull out (due to economy cuts) they will increase the US unemployment problems.

So "Hail Obabma" - he has to redeem a corrupt banking/financial market
and determine which industries/business must survive/fail.

This will determine the future of the US economy. Are they a global manufacturer or just a service industry nation - their joker could be innovation as they have achieved in the IT sector.

Who knows?

My advisers reckon a UKP to Baht of 63 is the norm. But today I do not know what "Norm" means....

[Brit]

Rossco,

For some wrong and historic illogical reason I always do my calcs on 70THB / 1 UKP. Historic thinking I know - but I guess I'm getting old and hankering back to those good ol' days. Then when i actually pay for the goods i'm pissed off getting around the 50THB mark.

I think you're advisors are correct and around the 62-65 THB mark is equitable based on historic cost of living and market prices.

I cannot see the Thai banks/govt being dynamic enough to devalue the currency yet. I think it will take them another Qtr of economic hardship before they consider that policy. Actually Thailand hasn't "hurt" enough yet - and it will BIG time by mid this year.

I'm waiting for the eurphoria of Obama to pass - his honeymoon period over - and we will see the foreign traders reconsider the USD valuation. In my mind they are in a far far worse state that their currency presents itself. Thai financials are too linked to the USD at the moment. The Thai's need to reconsider where their foreign capital comes from and align with that dominate investor. I don't think they have factored that into their equations as yet. Poor global economics, coupled with poor thai domestic politics, coupled with disasterous foreign investment ownership laws, coupled with rubbish law ownership laws make Thailand a BAD prospect in anyones book.

Just my humble opinion

[dixon cox]

Poor global economics, coupled with poor thai domestic politics, coupled with disasterous foreign investment ownership laws, coupled with rubbish law ownership laws make Thailand a BAD prospect in anyones book.

If it wasn't for the easy availability of sex and the abundance of ladyboys I probably wouldn't even bother with Thailand, but the draw of the LBs, especially mine, is too great for me to ignore.

I always liked it when the Baht was at around 66 to the £pound.
It made for easy calculations too, such as BHT100 = £1.50.

It's an easy calculation now also at BHT100 = £1.00, but I prefer the 66.

That's a 33% loss in 6 months, FFS! :|

[Hoot]

The median if they decide to devalue the baht is 17%. A strong usd could see 20% and a weak usd could see 14%

And that is based on what exactly? When they unpegged from the USD during the '97 financial crisis it went down ~14% against the USD. Before halving in value against the USD within a year.

Now that it's a floating currency, what do you see as the catalyst to devalue the baht 17% in this environment?

Thai financials are too linked to the USD at the moment. The Thai's need to reconsider where their foreign capital comes from and align with that dominate investor. I don't think they have factored that into their equations as yet.

The US is Thailand's largest trading partner followed by Japan and China. The US is also one of Thailand's three largest investors. What should they reconsider - managing the exchange rate against the Yen?

[kliome]

http://www.bangkokbank.com/Bangkok+Bank/main.htm

USD 34.64 35.32
GBP 51.12 53.12
EUR 43.51 44.79
JPY 35.50 36.70
HKD 4.40 4.59

the other day what was it 50.1 on xe.com
http://www.xe.com/ucc/convert.cgi
Live rates at 2008.11.19 08:37:44 UTC
Notice: The THB rate shown below is the international rate. Rates used within Thailand may vary.

United Kingdom Pounds Thailand Baht
1 GBP = 52.5506 THB 1 THB = 0.0190293 GBP

wont be long before it hits 60-1 in jan/feb then i will say to u lot i told u so.

Hmmm.. the baht rate is down the wrong side of 50bht to the pound now, touching 47 at the end of January.

Although I should be crying...

[Drift Spunk]

A nice little surge over night, Hopefully it get over 30 in the next few days befroe i make my first ATM visit

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