12 replies to this topic

[matchman]

I’ve seen a few threads mention the state of the economy in Thailand and also the costs involved with trips to LOS, but thought it might be an idea to see what others thought in a separate Topic.

MHO is that at the moment the Thai Baht is overvalued and that its only a matter of time before a major correction occurs. I think that the costs associated with trips to Thailand are now at a high and that this is effecting the number of visitors and the amount of traffic thru the bars. I know its been mentioned that the prices for services have varied very little in the Baht sense in the last couple of years but if you take into account the currency variations seen by most of us then there has been a major change in costs.

As an example almost ALL Western currencies have lost 15-20% of their value to the Baht in the last 4 months and over a period of the last 2 yrs many are down even further. So without any changes in Baht prices in Thailand we are still paying 20% more today than we did in November. It’s a strange behavior for the Baht when you consider the Civil Unrest in the South and also the change of government.

From my perception the season this year also does not look to have been a good one, it started later than usual. I was there in November and Pattaya and BKK were pretty dead and all the accommodations I stayed in were still charging the low season prices and then friends in LOS have told me the season fizzled sooner this year than expected.

So what are your thoughts?

[Brit]

Pat, It relates to the volume of trade occuring; plus the state of the US Dollar. The dollar rate is having an adverse effect on all other currencies. Good for American tourists only. Not good for the American people.

The Thai currency strength is due to good residuals and future contracts. I fear however default on some of those contracts and dire consequencies - plus very very poor management of their currencies on futures markets. The Thai government are directly to blame for this and their poor reaction to address this issue is reflective on the Thai economy as a whole.

[kliome]

I'm not sure if I prefer having more girls and less competition, or having a better exchange rate?
I won't stop going out there, but will be interesting to see how it goes form here.

It also seems that flight prices to LOS are going up. from UK at least. Using my regular agents I checked some flight prices and couldn't get close to the kind of deals I got this time last year, and that seems strange to me as less peopel seem to be flying. I know they raised fuel tax for European and Domestic flights, but mostof the smaller airlines seem to have put this on to the upper class seats or used the US system of taxing baggage checked in.

It's not looking good for the cheap Charlies.

[mardhi]

hmmm Euro exchange rate on Nov 23rd = 46.65 baht to the Euro
Euro exchange rate on Mar 23rd (4 months later) = 45.66 baht to the Euro

US$ exchange rate on Nov 23rd = 36.20 baht to the dollar
US$ exchange rate on March 23rd = 34.34 baht to the dollar

GB Pound exchange rate on Nov 23rd = 68.74 baht to the pound
GB Pound exchange rate on March 23rd = 66.92 baht to the pound

Maybe Its just me but I dont see any 15-20% drops in the last 4 months. Source for this data is BKK Bank and its what you actually get when you hand over cash to change into Baht.

Cheers
mardhi

[matchman]

I used the site x-rates which is a currency trading site and shows bulk rates and is one of the main currency sites.

The Rates for the last 120 days, US Dollar High 37.51 low 31.80 (15.3%), UK Pound High 71.62 Low 62.51(12.8%), Euro High 48.08 low 42.44 (11.7%) If you go back a couple of years then the changes on some currencies are more dramatic with the USD trading for over 42 at points.

If I can get 46 baht for my Euro when I get there or 34 baht for my USD I'll be happy.

So then the consensus is that business is not down at the moment in LOS? Mardi I know you probably have better firsthand experience than most on how busy it is compared to last year.

[bkklover]

New Year: 69.5 bt: £1 in bangkok

Now: 63bt: £1

thats a 10% difference.

[mardhi]

Guys the simple reality is that you dont go to the "bank of yahoo" to change your money. The rate I showed is what I picked up from BKK bank website minutes before I posted it - that is the same rate you get at any of their branches for changing money.

No idea if its being kept at an artificial level but frankly as a tourist I would not care - its what I get in real money for my Euro/pound/dollar that I am interested in.

Re: how busy is it - Not really sure - I know that many places are saying volume is down, however its almost anecdotal - for example Obsession has about 30% more staff than this time last year. Maybe the girls are not being barfined as much but that may be more to do with an increase in staff, than an actual reduction in the true numbers of drink sales and barfines over for example the previous year. Equally I would be very cynical about the historical trends this year versus last year, when the average LB stuggles to remember what she spent her salary on last week, let alone a year previously.

Cheers
Mardhi

[laptop]

if anyone has access to the Bloomberg pricing system this will confirm Mardhi's brives. The 10-20% hike is not true.

http://www.gocurrenc...=11&frYear=2006

Also plug in your own currency if you want to see gbp or usd, etc.

The increase in spending is probably us learning more cool places and finding more sexy lbs. Basicly we are becoming dirtier and dirtier bastards as each trip follows another.

[Danny123UJK]

Guys the simple reality is that you dont go to the "bank of yahoo" to change your money. The rate I showed is what I picked up from BKK bank website minutes before I posted it - that is the same rate you get at any of their branches for changing money.

Mardhi says it well!, have you ever exchanged your money at Yahoo.com, XE or Bloomberg exchange booths?

Similar postings have been made on other Thailand forums about the current situation of exchange rates, and got me quite confused!

I have always used XE.com's Currency converter as a guide to see what sort of rate I would get when I arrive in Thailand, more or less it has been quite accurate.

Just checked it again today and it shows a rate of 63.03 Bt to 1 GBP.

As I have a very inqiuistive mind, checked the exchange rates on Bank Of Thailand's website and it shows an exchange rate of 67.76 Bt to 1 GBP as of 22/3/07.

Which 1 is actually closest to the rate available in Thailand?

As a suggestion, could somebody start a thread which shows what the actual rates available are in Thailand. i.e the exchange rate you have actually received on that day!

Danny